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Cash Market Moves 09/21 11:53
2020 Spring Wheat Harvest: A Tale of Two Crops
The 2020 spring wheat crop fared better than the 2019 crop, but yields
varied on timing of planting.
Mary Kennedy
DTN Basis Analyst
Spring wheat planting was adversely affected in the spring of 2020,
especially in eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. Many producers had
to deal with overly wet field conditions and an unharvested crop that was still
in the field from 2019. In addition, the frost had not come out of the ground
in many places by the end of April, further stalling planting. At the end of
April, North Dakota was at 5% planted versus their average of 18%, and
Minnesota was at 6% versus their average of 30%.
Matthew Krueger, who farms in East Grand Forks, Minnesota, said that yields
were very variable based on planting date and stage of plant. "Our biggest
impact for the yield loss was a combination of later planting and excessive
heat (90-plus-degree days) during flag leaf and flowering stage. Yields were
below average and similar in 2020 to 2019," said Krueger.
"Harvest this year started on Aug. 15 and finished on Sept. 10, said
Krueger. "Normally it would take no longer than two weeks, but weather is the
biggest thing for that. A majority of our wheat came off around 15% moisture as
we couldn't wait for it to get dried down fully. Like 2019, the crop did seem
to take a while to dry down on the tail end of harvest. We couldn't seem to get
the straw to dry down and we were just waiting on that to keep rolling. Our
falling numbers remained in the 375-plus for the most part, as well as protein
was above average as well as test weight."
Tim Dufault, a farmer from Crookston, Minnesota, said: "Spring wheat turned
out to be so-so. Yield for the Northwest area will probably be just below
average at around 65 bushels per acre (bpa). In the Crookston area, protein
will be about a half a point lower than normal, maybe 13.0% to 13.5%. Test
weight and color are good. The August rain didn't affect us as much as I
thought it might.
"There wasn't as much of an issue with falling numbers like last year.
There was still a pocket from Crookston to Mahnomen that had some fields with
sub-300 second falling number tests. The region started the year wet, and all
of northwest Minnesota and northeast North Dakota had abundant rainfall from
June into August. So, there were some areas with drowned-out wheat and areas
where yields lost another 5 to 10 bpa potential."
Kerry Baldwin, who farms in Hope, North Dakota, said: "The wheat on our poor
ground ran in the upper 40s for yield. The wheat on our better ground ran in
the upper 60s. Considering it was planted late, I'm OK with the yields. Test
weight was good, and the protein was around 16%."
A shuttle loader in eastern North Dakota told me that the early heat took
its toll on the crop in his area. He said that yields were disappointing,
averaging in the mid-60s with a range of 30-90 bpa. "However, the wheat
averaged 14.7% protein with nice color, and most of it was dark northern spring
wheat with an average of 360 falling number. Some of the wheat harvested later
did grade northern spring wheat." He added that the vomitoxin (DON) tests
showed some presence of DON, but well under 2% with an average of about 1%.
Darrin Schmidt, who farms in eastern North Dakota, said: "Yield was below
average overall, with one or two fields that were above average, but everything
else below. Test weight was low on that field for some reason, possibly due to
the variety. Quality was good except for a couple fields, with protein higher
to average and no low protein. There were no falling number issues this year."
Schmidt added that he heard yields in his area ranged from poor to good.
Keith Brandt, general manager of Plains Grain and Agronomy LLC in Enderlin,
North Dakota, said that their spring wheat quality was better this year than
last. "No vomitoxin issues and only very minor falling number issues, with a
14.6% protein average and yield average of 55 bpa."
Brandt added that, at best, most growers will only break even on wheat this
year. "This was the least amount of wheat our company has handled at harvest
due to less acres planted. We are still battling wet field conditions in our
area. Some of the prevented planting (PP) acres still have not been worked and
potholes are as full as they have been all season. We are pretty cautious about
what next spring might bring here. Maybe another big PP year again?"
In western North Dakota, Allan Klain, who farms northwest of Turtle Lake,
North Dakota, said: "The early seeded wheat went too long in June without rain
and was significantly lower in yield than later seeding date wheat. Lighter
soils showed up too. We went 35 to 75 bpa on yield with 16 protein average."
Paul Anderson, Coleharbor, North Dakota, said that his wheat quality was
good and yields were about 55 bpa. "North of Garrison, there is lower protein
wheat and lots of 55 bpa wheat."
Matt Undlin, a farmer from Lansford, North Dakota, said his wheat yield was
75-95 bpa. "The 75-bushel field got hailed on late, and overall, we had perfect
color and 65-pound test weight."
North Dakota Wheat Commission, in their weekly crop progress report on Sept.
16, noted that quality continues to be good on the 2020 spring wheat crop. "The
spring wheat harvest is nearing completion with the most recent USDA Crop
Progress report indicating that 92% of the U.S. crop has been harvested,
similar to the five-year average. The bulk of the harvest season took place
under good weather conditions, allowing for smooth harvest pace and very few
quality issues. As we get further into September, temperatures tend to trend
cooler and harvest days become shorter, so producers appreciated the improved
harvest situation compared to the extended, troublesome harvest of 2019."
SOUTH DAKOTA AND MONTANA REPORTED A BETTER HARVEST VERSUS 2019
I spoke with a merchandiser in Montana who told me that this year's spring
wheat crop had above-average yields across the state and were up on average
approximately 12-15 bpa. The higher yields, however, produced a
lower-than-average protein. Montana normally raises a 14-protein spring wheat
crop, but this year, the protein will average closer to 13% to 13.5% Test
weight will average 60-61 per bushel and dark hard vitreous (DHV) kernels will
be in 75-80 range, with falling numbers in the 330-350 range. A mild growing
season caused the higher yields, and Montana didn't experience the hot
temperatures to stress the crop.
Ryan Wagner, a farmer in Roslyn, South Dakota, said: "We started harvest on
Aug. 8 and finished up on Aug. 25, but it took longer due to the varied
maturity because of a stretched out seeding this spring. Pretty much an average
crop here this year with yield right around the farm actual production history
(APH), and given that we didn't finish seeding wheat until May 20, we'll take
it."
Wagner added that, "After two years of struggling to get harvest complete
due to wet weather, harvest was a breeze this year with the dry August and we
have the quality to show for it. We have had no issues with DON or falling
numbers and just a little bit of ergot but nothing out of the ordinary, with
test weights consistently in the 62- to 63-pound range. Protein has varied from
the mid-13s to the upper 14s, which is a little lower than we'd like to see,
but in general, I'm pleased with our wheat this year."
Tim Luken, manager Oahe Grain in Onida, said in his area of central South
Dakota, harvest started around July 15 and ended around Aug. 11. "It was
finally enjoyable to receive nice-quality grain compared to the last three
years and we have something to work with this year," said Luken. "Mother Nature
was finally good to us during harvest even with some rain and fog delays that
helped the row crops but didn't deteriorate any wheat acres.
"Yields were very good in the 60- to 85-bushel range. I heard a lot of 70s
being talked about. The early part of harvest proteins were lower, in the upper
12% to lower 13%; as harvest progressed, protein increased toward the end to
upper 13% to lower 15% with our average at 13.9%. Test weight was very good all
the way through harvest, running 60 to 64 pounds and ending with an average of
61.5. It will be great to finally have a crop we can market without any
issues," added Luken.
U.S Wheat Associates noted in their weekly harvest update that, overall, the
industry reports that later-planted spring wheat had more favorable yield
prospects than fields seeded earlier. As of the Sept. 18 harvest report,
average protein was at 14.5% versus the final 2019 number at 14.4%. Test weight
was steady at 61.6 pounds, higher than last year's final average, and the
falling number average is 392 seconds, indicating a sound crop to date. Average
vitreous kernel content was steady at 64%, making the current average grade of
the 2020 spring wheat crop a U.S. No. 1 Northern Spring (1 NS).
Here is a reference to various spring wheat grade factors:
https://www.gipsa.usda.gov/fgis/standards/810wheat.pdf.
Here are the FDA guidelines for allowable vomitoxin:
https://www.fda.gov/regulatory-information/search-fda-guidance-documents/guidanc
e-industry-and-fda-advisory-levels-deoxynivalenol-don-finished-wheat-products-hu
man.
Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com
Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn
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