OMAHA (DTN) -- Despite a growing season during which most of North Dakota has seen limited rainfall and increasing drought conditions, corn and soybean yield estimates are predicted to be on par with last year, according to the results of the 2026 DTN Digital Yield Tour.

Crop conditions, however, are much more variable than in 2025. Some regions have seen timely rains, and thus crops are in decent shape. Other locations have not seen much rain in recent months. As a result, crops are suffering.

More than 56% of North Dakota was experiencing at least moderate (D1) drought as of Aug. 4, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

CORN YIELD ESTIMATES:

-- DTN 2026: 151.4 bushels per acre (bpa)

-- DTN 2025: 151.9 bpa

-- USDA RMA 5-YEAR AVERAGE: 147.7 bpa

SOYBEAN YIELD ESTIMATES:

-- DTN 2026: 34.0 bpa

-- DTN 2025: 34.7 bpa

-- USDA RMA 5-YEAR AVERAGE: 35.0 bpa

While the DTN Digital Yield Tour is in its ninth season, this is the third year that it employs DTN's proprietary crop yield models. The tour estimates reported here are based on yield models as of Aug. 1. The models update every two weeks and do not incorporate weather forecasts.

For more about how those models work and what makes them unique, please see: https://www.dtnpf.com/…

Results for all states covered by the tour can be found here: https://www.dtnpf.com/…

Updated yield model results will be shared in early September on DTN's online products. You can view a Reporter's Notebook that previewed the Digital Yield Tour at https://www.dtnpf.com/…. On Aug. 14, you can find the post-tour Reporter's Notebook video at https://www.dtnpf.com/…. Also, later in August you can hear a Field Posts Podcast about the tour results at https://www.dtnpf.com/….

WEATHER COMMENTARY

"I have a hard time coming up with a narrative for North Dakota," said DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick. "By many measures, the weather situation was favorable. But by others, it was not. That may be leading to some interesting observations in the yield data, both positively and negatively."

The state was drought-free at the beginning of March, Baranick said, but snowfall and soil moisture weren't necessarily high. A lack of precipitation events through the spring should have meant falling soil moisture and increasing drought, but the U.S. Drought Monitor only showed limited drought in a small section on the border with Montana at the end of May. Cold air was a problem in this state during planting.

"Precipitation was harder to come by in June and July in terms of amounts, but there were plenty of spotty showers that moved across North Dakota both months," he said. "Most areas saw below-normal rainfall this summer, but drought coverage is very limited across the state."

The real problem, Baranick noted, has been the heat. July 2026 ranks among the Top 10 hottest Julys on record for almost the entire state.

"That was during pollination for corn, and blooming for soybeans, which may affect the final yields," he added.

MARKET COMMENTARY

DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery said it's interesting that the DTN Digital Yield Tour corn yield estimate based on the Aug. 1 yield model is only 0.5 bpa lower than one year ago, as growing conditions in 2026 have been considerably more challenging by comparison.

"The most recent drought monitor showed over 50% of North Dakota in some form of drought compared to just 18% of the state in early August 2025," he said. "Last year's dryness was mostly contained to the northwest, whereas 2026 features drought in the production-dense east and southeastern areas.

"In this sense, I am surprised by the forecast and would have expected a yield forecast lower than the previous five-year average," Montgomery said.

North Dakota's soybean yields carry a notoriously large variance from trend year in and year out, Montgomery said, describing the crop as "very temperamental to disruptions in the growing season."

Unfortunately, 2026 has had its share of hiccups through the summer for the Northern Plains. In early August 2025, 60% of North Dakota soybeans were considered to be in good or excellent condition, compared to just 31% as of the most recent USDA Crop Progress report.

The DTN Digital Yield Tour result would be 3% below the state's previous five-year average for soybeans. That yield estimate still seems optimistic given the current weather situation, although August rains may have potential to limit the drought damage, he noted.

"With the return of China as a buyer of U.S. soybeans and business to the Pacific Northwest likely to be more active this fall, North Dakota soybean basis should be much improved compared to abysmal levels a year ago," Montgomery said.

OBSERVATIONS

-- Paul R. Anderson, Coleharbor, McLean County:

After a relatively good growing season in 2025, Paul R. Anderson, a farmer from Coleharbor, North Dakota, said this has been a tough one.

"This has been the worst growing season in the 35 years I have been farming," Anderson told DTN.

The growing season got off to a good start, he said. Rains fell during spring, and by Memorial Day, Anderson had his crops planted.

Then Mother Nature began to be uncooperative.

A couple of different severe storms in June brought moisture but also brought destructive winds and hail, which damaged crop stands. Anderson replanted some fields twice during the month.

And if that was not enough, Anderson's area of central North Dakota did not see any moisture from June 28 to July 29. In that time, farmers saw nine days above 100 degrees Fahrenheit and another 10 days above 90 degrees, he said, which is uncommon. The hot, dry conditions have had a negative effect on his crops.

"So much of the corn just looks sketchy right now," Anderson said. "A lot of it is just chest high."

Anderson estimated dryland corn is probably going to yield an average of 50 bpa to 60 bpa less than last year. Between replanting half of corn acres in mid-June and all the hot and dry weather since, the crop really did not have much of a chance in his area this year, he said. All is not lost, however.

"There are some chances of rain this week, and any moisture now might allow the corn to continue to fill," he added.

As for soybeans, Anderson really is not sure what to expect from this crop after all the weather challenges it has faced this growing season. Most bean plants are shin-height right now, thanks to the shortage of moisture.

"Who knows what they (soybeans) are going to do," he said.

-- Jill Murphy, North Dakota State University (NDSU) Extension agent, Traill County:

As July turned to August, moderate (D1) drought conditions in east-central North Dakota's Traill County turned to severe (D2) drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Murphy told DTN that their area had seen very little moisture this growing season; since May, only 4 inches of rain had been recorded.

"We've only had one sizeable rain in July and that was just about a half inch of rain," she said.

Because of this, corn and soybean conditions across Traill County are extremely variable. Some spots are in decent shape, but in others, the effects of drought can be seen, including corn fields with ears that are missing kernels, she said.

Murphy said corn and bean yields were above average last growing season, thanks to much more rainfall than has fallen this season. The drought really began with a mild North Dakota winter with somewhat limited snowfalls.

As far as where yields could be this fall for Traill County, Murphy said she believes some areas could still see close to average yields, but more areas are going to be well below average.

"The beans are filling pods right now," she said. "If we could see some rain in the coming days or weeks, maybe the beans will finish up better."

-- Josh Becker, NDSU Extension agent, McIntosh and Logan counties:

Even at the beginning of August, McIntosh County -- along the South Dakota border -- was one of but a few North Dakota counties where no drought was designated by the U.S. Drought Monitor. However, Becker said crops in this region could also be extremely variable because of dry weather.

"I know the Drought Monitor has us in no drought designation in Logan County just to the north of McIntosh County, but there are parts of the county that are dry where the drought has already affected the crops," he said.

Much like other areas of the state, last year's growing season featured plenty of rainfall and resulted in above-average yields. In addition, moisture was present this spring.

Becker said some areas saw early rains of a quarter or half inch, and the crops got off to a decent start. Some areas saw some rain in June and July, but recently, very little rain has fallen in Logan County, he noted.

"The corn, in spots, still looks OK, but with temperatures in the 90s in recent weeks and no rain, conditions are beginning to deteriorate rapidly," he said. "The western part of the county features soils that are not quite as good as the soils on the eastern side, and you can see that corn on the lesser soils is really starting to suffer."

Soybeans in the two counties appear to be in better shape than corn, Becker reported. Beans are setting pods right now, and with some rain in the forecast this week, there is still some hope that the moisture could help the crop finish up in good shape.

"I think our yields are going to be very patchy this fall," he said. "Corn yields are really going to suffer, but some moisture this week and maybe soybeans can still yield decent."

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

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