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DTN Midday Grain Comments     01/21 10:51

   Corn Futures Higher at Midday; Soybeans Lower; Wheat Mixed

   Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents higher at midday Friday; soybean futures are 
10 to 12 cents lower; wheat is 5 cents lower to 2 cents higher. 

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

MARKET SUMMARY:

   The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow up 100 points. The U.S. Dollar 
Index is 10 points lower. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are mixed 
with crude down .20. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs leading. Precious 
metals are weaker with gold off 10.00.

CORN:

   Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents higher at midday with two-sided action so far. 
There was a test of the post-harvest highs at $6.17 before trade faded slightly 
with strong spread action continuing. Ethanol margins will continue to be 
squeezed by tepid short-term demand. Export sales rebounded solidly to 1.09 
million metric tons (mmt) of old crop, and 105,000 metric tons (mt) of new crop 
with 247,800 mt sold to unknown for old crop. Basis should remain rangebound to 
slightly weaker in the short term with weather likely to slow short-term 
movement. Trade will continue watching South American weather as we head 
towards second crop planting and development. On the March contract we have 
support at the 20-day moving average of $6.02, then the upper Bollinger band at 
$6.16, which we are just below at midday.  

SOYBEANS:

   Soybean futures are 10 to 12 cents lower at midday with trade bouncing back 
from 20 lower early. Volatile trade is likely to continue with demand and South 
American potential still in focus. Meal is $6.50 to $7.50 lower and oil is 20 
to 30 points higher. Basis remains mostly flat in the short term with some 
processors starting to widen. Crush margins remain solid with future renewable 
diesel demand likely to keep good support under oil coming forward. Early 
harvest is under way in South America, likely to further crimp U.S. export 
competitiveness in February with short-term forecasts still showing relief for 
some areas. Weekly export sales showed improvement at 671,000 mt old crop; 
528,000 mt of new crop; 314,900 mt of old meal; 201,700 of new meal; and oil at 
30,700. The daily wire also showed 132,000 mt of old crop to China. On the 
March soybean chart, we have resistance at the fresh high of $14.29 1/2, with 
trade back above the 20-day moving average at $13.79 support.

WHEAT:

   Wheat futures are 5 cents lower to 2 cents higher at midday with trade 
fading back from the $8.00 area on the winter wheats. Spring wheat is 
consolidating above $9.00 with trade waiting for further political direction 
and Northern Hemisphere weather. The dollar remains squarely rangebound in the 
short term as well. Plains weather looks drier with a little snow cover out of 
the last system, while temps continue to fluctuate, keeping stress intact with 
other Northern Hemisphere weather concerns fading for the moment while 
political fears ramp up again with little change in the Russia/Ukraine 
situation. Weekly export sales were improved at 380,600 mt of old crop and 
72,000 mt of new crop. Spring wheat is firmer vs. Chicago, moving the premium 
to $1.57 on the March, with KC at a 12-cent premium in firmer action as well. 
KC March chart support is the lower Bollinger band at $7.37 with the 20-day 
moving average at $7.98, which we are just below at midday.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala




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